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Proposed Report re Slopes for Pricing Mortality Tables Bragg Associates will produce a report addressing the following: (1) Confirmation of the observed phenomenon. (2) Analysis and explanation of
the drivers behind this phenomenon (using (3) Opinion as to whether an
adjustment to the SOA 90-95 slope is (4) If so, a recommendation of
how to adjust the slope using the data and We will base our analysis on the following tables: SOA: 85-90 Basic and 90-95Basic Bragg: 91BLT, 97BLT, 2001BLT (unprojected), and 2002 BLT (projected). We will also use our data runs by issue age and duration
groups (known as white-green sheets) for 85-89; 90-94; and 95-99. We will do the work separately for NSM, SM, NSF, and SF blocks. Although concentrating on durations 1-10, we will extend
our analysis through duration 15 as a control, Using sample issue age and durations, we expect to analyze
the slope phenomenon in the following ways:
Formula 1 will give gross slope; formulas 2 and 3 will be useful in analyzing the wearing-off of select status. To the extent possible, this will be done from the tables and from the Bragg raw data, which will provide demonstrations. Because numerous changes have occurred over the period studied, in cohort characteristics, underwriting, change in select period characteristics, etc., we expect that the analysis will lead to meaningful insight into drivers. We expect the analysis to lead to appropriate opinions and recommendations along the lines of (3) and (4) of the report. David G. W. Bragg
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David G. W. Bragg |